Election post mortem

Prior to this election, a lot of pundits were saying that this was going to be a razor thin win for whichever candidate was victorious. They had said that the race was just "too close to call" in too many battleground states.

In the end, the whole thing was over before 11:30 PM EST. President Obama has won his re-election bid decisively with 303 Electoral Votes, and that doesn't include Florida, which is still counting ballots in Miami-Dade County, which is heavily Democratic. And the President has a lead in Florida already. 12 years ago, Florida was the state that decided the election, with some help from the Supreme Court. This year, Florida doesn't matter.

For the Romney campaign the line today from the news outlets is that they were genuinely surprised that they lost. Romney had only written a victory speech. He had no compunctions about being elected and if the news people are correct, this was a stunning surprise to them.

But the fact is that the polls, which many Republicans criticized as being skewed, were correct in the end. They weren't skewed for Democrats and they pretty much captured the election results accurately, with the exception of Scott Rasmussen, who was dead wrong on a lot of his predictions.

As to the results, the President has an indisputable mandate to lead the country. In addition to the electoral landslide, he also has won the popular vote with a majority of over 2 million votes.

So, 4 more years of an Obama Administration are what's in front of us. I believe they will prove to be historic and that we will see growth, change and economic expansion.

In other races, Claire McCaskill beat back a challenge from Todd "Legitimate rape" Akin. Elizabeth Warren took away the seat held by Scott Brown, and Tammy Baldwin beat Tommy Thompson, so three key races for the Senate were won by Democrats.

The house remains in Republican hands, but two key races were defeats for the Tea Party. Allen West lost his seat to Patrick Murphy in the Florida 18th Congressional District. In Illinois, Tammy Duckworth beat Joe Walsh in the 8th Congressional District race.

Thus, the Tea Party's days may be numbered and they may no longer be in a position to stymie the President's agenda.

Got a comment? Let's hear it!

The path to 270

As of today there are 16 days left until the 2012 General election. Polls are going crazy and as you all know, there are a ton of statistics out there that show Romney up in the popular vote, with Obama up in the Electoral College. I won't get into the disparity between the two, except to say that the Founders set up the system this way and it is what we have to work with.

So, lets get into it. I'm going to ignore the popular vote polls for the purpose of this post because there are conflicting surveys out there. Real Clear Politics has Romney with a very thin edge over Obama as of today, and I believe that it's accurate.

As to the electoral college: ElectoralVote, link on the right, currently has the President with a total of 286 votes among the polls they average. I like EV because they update their map every time a new poll is released. As you all know, I support the President, but that doesn't prevent me from looking at the facts. For example, most pundits, including Nate Silver, are saying that Obama will carry New Hampshire. However, EV has the state tied right now.

Anyway, President Obama's 286 votes are more than what he needs to get to get a second term. Problematic is that Mitt Romney is 35 votes shy. For him, the states in play are: Virginia and New Hampshire. Both are tied right now according to EV. With both of those states, he would still need 18 votes. And Ohio is where those 18 votes lie. But he has yet to show himself ahead in Ohio. Every poll since the conventions has had the President ahead in Ohio.

Hurting Romney more are two important news items related to early voting. First, the State of Ohio lost its efforts to eliminate early voting on the last weekend before election day. Second, early voting numbers, according to Political Wire, are showing a huge advantage for the President.

We won't know whether the elimination of the final weekend of early voting would have made a difference. But the early turnout numbers are staggering if they're accurate because in essence, they tell us that of the votes cast, nearly 66% were banked for the President.

This means that Romney would have to have nearly 2/3 of the votes cast on election day cast for him to offset the advantage of the President. Also, news is coming out that Tagg Romney, Mitt's oldest son, has ties to the voting machine company vending to Ohio and that the machines supposedly can be rigged. The story is conjecture at this point, but if it's true, it could be trouble for the Romney campaign, and at the very least mean intervention from the Federal Election Commission.

But in sum: Romney needs to have VA and NH come out for him, and he must flip Ohio. If he doesn't flip Ohio, there are no two states that have a total of 18 electoral votes that are polling close right now, meaning he would need NH and VA and a combination of at least 3 of the following four:
 NV, CO, WI, and IA. All four are narrowly polling in The President's favor. Moreover, with the last debate focused on foreign policy tomorrow, the Romney campaign was probably hoping to make hay out of Benghazi.

But news broke yesterday that the Administration's statements after the attack were reflective of what the CIA knew at the time, so there was no cover up and there is no scandal.

The question then is: Presuming the Governor carries NH and VA, with just 16 days left until the election, can Mitt Romney flip Ohio  or at least three of the four states mentioned? Nate Silver gives the President a better than 66% chance of winning the electoral college. And I think that barring a massive scandal between now and then, that's a smart bet...

Second Presidential Debate

In a nutshell, last night will go down as the debate about "binders" and Libya. Former Governor Romney talked about how as Governor, women's groups brought him "binders" full of women who were qualified for his cabinet. Which of course is leading many to ask why such women weren't part of his Gubernatorial Campaign.

Governor Romney also tried to pin down The President on Libya, but the President, perhaps channeling Harry Truman, said that the buck on Libya stops with him and he took full responsibility for the lost lives in front of any and all who happened to be watching, in addition to those in the hall.  The follow up question was whether Secretary Clinton was responsible. The President, in a David Palmer moment, said "Secretary Clinton works for me. I'm always responsible." A very Presidential moment indeed. (note: David Palmer was the fictional African American President on the show 24, which you can stream on Netflix)

Third, Romney made what may have been two fatal mistakes: First, he tried to be condescending to the President, which doesn't work whether the President is Geroge W. bush or Barack Obama. The other mistake is that he ran over Candy Crowley. This is a really bad move because there may be many undecided voters who were just tuning in. If this was their first real look at Romney, they had a bad impression of a guy who tried to dominate the room just because he's Mitt Romney.

For me the worst moment for Romney was when he was asked about his tax plan, and when Crowley pressed him on the question of what he would do if his numbers didn't add up, he answered in an exasperated tone: "Of course they add up!" It was almost as if he said, "I'm Mitt Romney! I know more about numbers because I'm a business guy!"

But what do the polls say? In a CNN flash poll, which CNN said was skewed by +8 for Republicans, Obama won by 46 to 39 points. PPP has the President winning the debate in a poll of moderate voters in Colorado at at 63%.

Most telling is this morning on the MSNBC program "Morning Joe." Former Republican Rep. Joe Scarborough is grudgingly giving the debate to Obama.

We'll need a few days to see if this impacts the polls any. Nate Silver said that debates, on average move polls about 2.4 points in a given direction. If the debate moves the polls Obama's way, and he has the same success next time out, Romney will be faced with an insurmountable task.

Also, this morning, the news broke that housing starts are up to their highest level in 5 years, as well as a host of other good economic news for the President. The pendulum of momentum is swinging back the President's way. Democrats are hopeful it keeps swinging his way...



 

Why I switched parties....

In 1986, I was a 22 year old Marine and I was very much a Republican. I was a true believer in the Republican agenda: lower taxes, a prohibitive military, and the ideal that while there were some social programs that worked, many were overfunded and ineffective.

But then a funny thing happened on the way to the election of 1992. The Republican Party of my Uncle and my Grandfather became less interested in individualism, self reliance, and national unity, and more intertested in the agenda of the evangelical right and the extemists who absolutley hated government.

The ideoological shift took some time, but by 2000, it was complete. The Republicans had been co-opted by the extremists in their party, just as the Democrats had been co-opted by the extreme liberals in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

There is no single reason for this shift. It happened slowly over a period of years. I view it as more of a reaction to the successes of the Reagan Administration strategically outspending the Soviet Union on defense until it collapsed.

But the fact is that many of us in the middle of the party were left behind. Where the party used to merely be opposed to some government spending, they began to attack it. Where they used to be pragmatic on foreign policy, they became hawkish. Most important, they began to turn their backs on those who were less fortunate. The compassion was replaced by the false encouragement that if you worked hard enough, you too could be one of the one percent at the top! Nevermind that most of those at the top were the beneficiaries of generational wealth.

The change for me was complete when Bill Clinton was elected President in 1992. A moderate Southern Democrat, he recognized the need for centrist policies in order for America to grow and expand. Without Ross Perot inthe election, he might well have won the popular vote by 60%.

To be sure, the Clinton Administration benefitted from unprecendented growth as the result of the internet/ home computer boom. But the fact is that the budget was balanced and the debt clock was running in reverse when Clinton left office in 2001.

Under George W. Bush, federal spending went up, and along with his tax cuts, the national debt began rising again.

Today, the Republicans have become a party of extremist bitter old men who have no interests beyond outlawing abortion, eliminating taxes on the rich, and screwing over the working class. And they want to know why the country is so divided. they should be ashamed.
 

Do you believe the polls?

So today a few new swing state polls were released. Electoral Vote (link on the sidebar) now has Florida and New Hampshire going to Mitt Romney. They also have Ohio as barely Democratic. That is a bit disconcerting, but not much of a surprise.

What is a surprise is the fact that Arizona, according to one poll, is now a state going to the President. This is a heavy Republican state and has gone red for a while. But according to CNN, Obama and Romney are now in a dead heat in the state:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/25/poll-dead-heat-in-arizona/

That is very surprising in that the poll was conducted over a 6 day period. So, while Romney has picked up two states, he may lose one that is traditionally Democratic and he can't afford to lose any states at this point.

Electoral vote (link on the sidebar) has Obama at 290 EVs without Arizona, and Romney with 239 including the Grand Canyon State. If it goes blue, Obama is at 301 and Romney falls to 228. This means that Romney either has to flip AZ back to his side of the ledger as well as flip at the very least 2 other states in order to get to the magic number of 270.

The question is: has his debate momentum peaked? The states of Ohio and Virginia as well as Wisconsin and Michigan are still on Obama's side of the books. If they haven't flipped yet, it's doubtful they will. And barring another poor debate performance from the President, it's unlikely that the former Massachusetts Governor will be able to reach the requisite 270 votes necessary to capture the White House.

Nate Silver of the New York Times has Obama winning 285 votes on Election Day and better than 60% chance of winning.

Had Romney flipped another two states and Obama not shown any gains anywhere, this may have been bad news for the President. However, with the new data showing Obama competitive in AZ, and Romney not flipping Ohio or Virginia, the post debate bump that Romney got may be fading.

The debate this coming Tuesday should define the race a little more.

What do you think? click on the comment tag below and share your thoughts.

Biden came to play

Last night, the Vice Presidential debate was held and one thing was clear from the start: Joe Biden came to play and more importantly, came to win. Within the first 15 minutes, the Vice President lambasted Paul Ryan over a range of subjects, including (but not limited to), Ryan's running mate's no infamous 47% comment, the thinly failed attempt to gut medicare, and the reasons the tax plan advocated by Mitt and company wouldn't work.

From an objective standpoint, Ryan did manage to not get flustered by the V.P. But the haymaker that Biden "cleared the beach" with was his allusion to the fact that Ryan took money from the very stimulus he has been criticizing on the campaign trail.

Ryan's feeble excuse was that this was all a part of "constituent service." Ryan tried to turn things around by saying that unemployment was higher in Scranton than when the current administration took office. But Biden wasn't biting and he immediately jumped on Ryan and Romney for distorting the facts by trying to dismiss the figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

On foreign policy, Ryan tried to say that the tragic death of American diplomats last month in Libya was the result of poor embassy security on the part of the State Department, and thus the Administration. But Biden was quick to point out that the failure of security was directly tied to the refusal of House Republicans, including Ryan, to grant the White House's request for additional embassy security funding. One thing curiously omitted by both parties was that the facility in Benghazi was actually a Consulate and not an embassy, which in general have lighter security. Nevertheless, Biden derided the response of the Romney campaign and in particular, Romney's attempt to politicize the event without having all the facts.

As to moderation, Martha Raddatz proved very adept at asking the question and then following up questions when she wasn't happy with the answers. Particularly, she held Ryan to the pledge that the tax plan advocated by Romney is workable.

In sum, Democrats were re-energized by Biden's performance and this will likely stop the momentum of Romney and his campaign in the wake of last week's debate.

As to reaction's, Republicans this morning feel that Biden's style was undignified. But when you're bitching about style as opposed to questioning substance, you can be pretty sure you lost.

Got a comment? List it here.
 

And now... The all new and improved Mitt romney!

So, Mitt Romney has caught back up to the President in the latest polls and the election is once again a contest that either man has a chance of winning.

For the moment, all the momentum is on the side of the challenger. This is indisputable. After he turned in a strong debate performance last week and the President's performance was poor, the President is now fighting hard to stay in the White House.

But this isn't the game changer everyone is making it out to be. Romney, for all his strengths on the debating stage, still has a credibility problem as well as an incapacity for honesty insofar as which position he takes on a plethora of issues.

On any given day, his position on hot button issues can change from favoring them to being in opposition. This week he loves teachers and wants more. Pretty soon he'll be lambasting government payrolls and stating we need to stop spending on social programs if we're ever going to balance the budget (which will translate into education).

He used to think there was too much government but now he says we need more regs (see my post below).

This guy is the king of flip flops and if you are planning on supporting him you need to take a hard look at his record. Moreover, doesn't it bother you that other Presidential candidates freely release tax returns, but Romney won't follow tradition? Personally, I really couldn't care less about how much he makes, but all the candidates release tax returns far further back than two years. Why not Mitt?

If you're a Romney supporter, please post your reasons why. I've freed up the comments so they won't require my review before you post. I only ask that you refrain from posting profanity. Flames and troll posts will be promptly deleted.



 

Jack Welch and the BLS

As a career employee of the U.S. Department of Labor, I was outraged the other night when Jack Welch tweeted that the Bureau of Labor statistics may have manipulated the unemployment numbers so as to help President Obama in his reelection bid.

His tweet read: "Unbelievable jobs numbers! These Chicago guys will do anything. Can't debate so change numbers"

I need to point out at the outset: I do NOT work for the BLS. I work for another Labor Department Agency. However, I know some current and former BLS employees and the very notion that these folks would manipulate data is insidious.

First of all, the BLS is staffed with career, professional civil servants. They are mostly college grads with degrees in relevant fields related to statistical research and analysis. Second, every federal agency is overseen by a cabinet secretary. Yes, they are political appointees. But they are also accountable to the United states congress. And ordering employees to engage in fraud would be result in Congressional hearings and a slew of other problems most likely resulting in a criminal conviction. Third, agencies like the BLS are covered under the Inspector General Act. The Inspector General is charged with ensuring there is no "fraud, waste, or abuse" by employees when they perform their duties. In sum, they are sort of like an internal affairs for each agency.

So it's safe to say that any manipulation like the type charged by Jack Welch would be investigated by the OIG for the DOL and to put it bluntly, heads would certainly roll. But the other problem is that Mr. Welch has over a million followers. While many people mocked the tweet of the former General Electric CEO, there are sure to be those who agree with him.

One of those who thinks Welch is right is Congressman Allen West of Florida, a retired Army Lieutenant Colonel. Mr. West has stated that he thinks "Chicago Politics are at work here." Respectfully, Colonel, you don't know what you're talking about. Your party holds a majority in the House of Representatives. Why are they not immediately reconvening and ordering Labor Secretary Solis and Current acting BLS Commissioner John Gavin to appear for official inquiries?

I'll answer it for you to save you some time: Because most of your colleagues already know that the charge from Welch is ludicrous on its face. Mr. Welch is supposed to be a well respected individual, but with this tweet, he has moved over into the extreme space shared with Michelle Bachman, Colonel West, and Joe Walsh.

Mr. Welch's feeble defense was that while he had no evidence, he had to "raise the question." Al lhe did was make himself look like the dottering old fool and a parody of himself. He should be ashamed of his actions and for calling into question the integrity of the employees of the BLS.

Mitt Romney the chameleon

So... Now Mitt Romney is a man of the people, was wrong about the 47% comment, and doesn't believe the new unemployment report out from the BLS.

And to top it all off, he was a bipartisan governor in Massachusetts, forging coalitions with the Democrats and making health insurance a reality for all the citizens of the Commonwealth.

Hmmm... That's a far cry from when he said he was a severe conservative, vetoed the majority of the legislation sent to him by the Massachusetts General Court, and never saw a regulation he didn't want to get rid of.

Make no mistake about it, President Obama lost the debate last Wednesday night. He lost it handily by not calling out the former Governor on a lot of the things he's been saying on the campaign trail. And strategy aside, nobody can say that this was a part of the President's plan. He even admitted he's not happy with his debate performance and David Axelrod has vowed that this won't happen again.

However, in winning the debate, the former Governor may have dug himself a deep hole. The next day, the Obama campaign began releasing new ads that quoted Romney on the campaign trail, and then contrasted those moments against what he said in the debate.

Thus, a well organized campaign has made a pretty good salvage effort out of what should have been the game changer for Governor Romney.

The latest polls show the President with narrow but consistent leads in most of the so called battleground states. So the debate did give Romney some momentum, but not what he needed to turn the race around.

Adding to the President's overall chances are the new unemployment numbers out from the Bureau of Labor Statistics which show unemployment has dropped below 8% for the first time since the President inherited the disaster left behind by his predecessor. This is important because it takes away a talking point from the Romney campaign.

So now, Governor Romney will have to change his campaign message yet again. I would be happy if someone would just tell me flat out who he is and what he stands for.

R.I.P. to my Blackberry Storm 2

Back in 2010, I upgraded my phone to a Blackberry Storm 2. It was a great device and RIM had improved upon the much maligned Blackberry Storm. Last Sunday, I dropped my S2 and cracked the screen, necessitating the purchase of a new phone.

I went with the Apple iPhone 4S and I have to say I am impressed. The iPhone is light years ahead of the S2 and it is a very capable and user friendly device with loads of features and plenty of power.

Nevertheless, I would be remiss if I failed to recognize what a great device the S2 was for me. It was a tough little phone and it served me very well over the last two years.

It's parked on my desk forever, in its cradle with the power down. It's a way of recognizing all that it was for me.

So thanks to RIM for making a great device, and RIP to my S2.

Been away for a while....

But I'm back and I intend to start posting with more regularity.

If you haven't figured it out from my previous posts, I'm a registered Democrat. But before you start to assume I'm all about abortion, gun control, and higher taxes for social spending, you need to know a few things.

Once upon a time, I was a registered Republican. When I got out of the Marines in 1986, the Republican party was a lot different than it is today. For starters, they hadn't yet been totally co-opted by the evangelicals and they stood for things like reduced government, a strong military and national unity.

The last Republican candidate who got my vote for President was George H.W. Bush.

But by 2000, the party had begun to become too radical, much the same way the Democratic party did in the 1960s and early 1970s. The religious right had begun to dictate what Republican values would be and thus, I began to identify with them less.

Following the election of President Obama, the party radically shifted right and now are dominated by those who think that unless one holds the same values as them, one is an enemy of America. And even more disturbing is those Republicans who are attacking candidates who are veterans.

The most insulting example is Congressman Joe Walsh attacking Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war vet and Army helicopter pilot who her legs flying a combat mission in Iraq in 2004. This is really below the belt in my opinion and regardless of the fact that he does think she's a hero, the fact that he calls her discussing her service too much is in my mind, reprehensible. But don't take my word for it. Decide for yourself:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78101.html

And now, the Republicans have as their candidate for the nation's highest office, a corporate raider who hides his money off shore and thinks that 47% of the American public are victims.

And they wonder why they are losing in the polls and have to resort to disenfranchising 10s of thousdands of Americans to win an election....

Yeah. Right.

Update: Battlestar Galactica

A couple of years back, I wrote about the best show of the 2000s (IMHO). In that post, I had said that thanks to the DVD, you can see the show whenever you want.

Now, you also have the option of seeing it on Netflix Instant, Amazon Instant Video, and iTunes, although it's been on iTunes for a few years.

Since then, there have been some new releases from the Battlestar franchise. In Fall of 2009, The Plan, which told the story of the genocide of the 12 colonies from the Cylon point of view, was released on DVD. It was a great movie that showed how incredibly rich the BSG universe is, and how many great stories there are.

In 2010, Caprica premiered on the SyFy channel. A prequel set 58 years before the 2004 series, it was intended to show the life of the colonists before and during the creation of the Cylons. However, the ratings were abysmal despite the solid story telling a,d plot and it was cancelled after its first season.

Last year, SyFy commissioned a new show called Blood and Chrome. This show was going to follow the early career of Bill Adama, the erstwhile Commander and later Admiral of the fleet of ships trying to find Earth.

Although the trailer looks incredible, the network chose not to pick it up as a series, although there are rumors they're going to show the pilot after all. I will say this for the SyFy Network. If anyone knows how to screw up and kill a show better than them, I have yet to see it.

Anyway, look for BSG and Caprica on streaming video services...

Winter's end

So... here we are on the verge of another Spring/ Summer. The Red Sox are in training camp, flowers are beginning to bloom, and the street sweepers are making their first rounds to clean up all the sand and salt from the snow (although admittedly, they have an easier task this year).

For me, it's a melancholy time of year. I know many of you will read this and go away thinking I'm out of whatever mind God gave me. But I'm a winter person thorugh and theough. I love the cold and the dark. And the snow? Can't get enough of it.

But, this winter (2011-2012) left a lot to be desired. We had one storm in October. I think we had one more storm after that in which we got a whopping 4". Other than that, nada. Zip. Zilch. We didn't even come close to the 60" or so we average each year.

But no matter. Now that Spring is upon us, we can look forward to at least 6 months of long days, mosquitoes, humidity, and let's see... Oh yeah... the occasional thunderstorm. Not to mention that by the middle of July, there is absolutely nothing going on until Labor Day.

Let's face the facts: the fall and the winter rock! When the NFL begins traiing camp, my whole attitude turns around because I know it won't be long before we're turning up the heat, watching the game every Sunday, and getting ready for Thanksgivng and Christmas.

It's at this time of the year that I am at my best. Everything is more fun, and I am looking forward to putting up the tree and watching Christmas movies and shows.

In my mind, I'd rather have it cold and snowy and have a lot to do , than be swatting mosquitoes and sweating.

Wouldn't you?