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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Second Presidential Debate

In a nutshell, last night will go down as the debate about "binders" and Libya. Former Governor Romney talked about how as Governor, women's groups brought him "binders" full of women who were qualified for his cabinet. Which of course is leading many to ask why such women weren't part of his Gubernatorial Campaign.

Governor Romney also tried to pin down The President on Libya, but the President, perhaps channeling Harry Truman, said that the buck on Libya stops with him and he took full responsibility for the lost lives in front of any and all who happened to be watching, in addition to those in the hall.  The follow up question was whether Secretary Clinton was responsible. The President, in a David Palmer moment, said "Secretary Clinton works for me. I'm always responsible." A very Presidential moment indeed. (note: David Palmer was the fictional African American President on the show 24, which you can stream on Netflix)

Third, Romney made what may have been two fatal mistakes: First, he tried to be condescending to the President, which doesn't work whether the President is Geroge W. bush or Barack Obama. The other mistake is that he ran over Candy Crowley. This is a really bad move because there may be many undecided voters who were just tuning in. If this was their first real look at Romney, they had a bad impression of a guy who tried to dominate the room just because he's Mitt Romney.

For me the worst moment for Romney was when he was asked about his tax plan, and when Crowley pressed him on the question of what he would do if his numbers didn't add up, he answered in an exasperated tone: "Of course they add up!" It was almost as if he said, "I'm Mitt Romney! I know more about numbers because I'm a business guy!"

But what do the polls say? In a CNN flash poll, which CNN said was skewed by +8 for Republicans, Obama won by 46 to 39 points. PPP has the President winning the debate in a poll of moderate voters in Colorado at at 63%.

Most telling is this morning on the MSNBC program "Morning Joe." Former Republican Rep. Joe Scarborough is grudgingly giving the debate to Obama.

We'll need a few days to see if this impacts the polls any. Nate Silver said that debates, on average move polls about 2.4 points in a given direction. If the debate moves the polls Obama's way, and he has the same success next time out, Romney will be faced with an insurmountable task.

Also, this morning, the news broke that housing starts are up to their highest level in 5 years, as well as a host of other good economic news for the President. The pendulum of momentum is swinging back the President's way. Democrats are hopeful it keeps swinging his way...



 

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