So today a few new swing state polls were released. Electoral Vote (link on the sidebar) now has Florida and New Hampshire going to Mitt Romney. They also have Ohio as barely Democratic. That is a bit disconcerting, but not much of a surprise.
What is a surprise is the fact that Arizona, according to one poll, is now a state going to the President. This is a heavy Republican state and has gone red for a while. But according to CNN, Obama and Romney are now in a dead heat in the state:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/25/poll-dead-heat-in-arizona/
That is very surprising in that the poll was conducted over a 6 day period. So, while Romney has picked up two states, he may lose one that is traditionally Democratic and he can't afford to lose any states at this point.
Electoral vote (link on the sidebar) has Obama at 290 EVs without Arizona, and Romney with 239 including the Grand Canyon State. If it goes blue, Obama is at 301 and Romney falls to 228. This means that Romney either has to flip AZ back to his side of the ledger as well as flip at the very least 2 other states in order to get to the magic number of 270.
The question is: has his debate momentum peaked? The states of Ohio and Virginia as well as Wisconsin and Michigan are still on Obama's side of the books. If they haven't flipped yet, it's doubtful they will. And barring another poor debate performance from the President, it's unlikely that the former Massachusetts Governor will be able to reach the requisite 270 votes necessary to capture the White House.
Nate Silver of the New York Times has Obama winning 285 votes on Election Day and better than 60% chance of winning.
Had Romney flipped another two states and Obama not shown any gains anywhere, this may have been bad news for the President. However, with the new data showing Obama competitive in AZ, and Romney not flipping Ohio or Virginia, the post debate bump that Romney got may be fading.
The debate this coming Tuesday should define the race a little more.
What do you think? click on the comment tag below and share your thoughts.
What is a surprise is the fact that Arizona, according to one poll, is now a state going to the President. This is a heavy Republican state and has gone red for a while. But according to CNN, Obama and Romney are now in a dead heat in the state:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/04/25/poll-dead-heat-in-arizona/
That is very surprising in that the poll was conducted over a 6 day period. So, while Romney has picked up two states, he may lose one that is traditionally Democratic and he can't afford to lose any states at this point.
Electoral vote (link on the sidebar) has Obama at 290 EVs without Arizona, and Romney with 239 including the Grand Canyon State. If it goes blue, Obama is at 301 and Romney falls to 228. This means that Romney either has to flip AZ back to his side of the ledger as well as flip at the very least 2 other states in order to get to the magic number of 270.
The question is: has his debate momentum peaked? The states of Ohio and Virginia as well as Wisconsin and Michigan are still on Obama's side of the books. If they haven't flipped yet, it's doubtful they will. And barring another poor debate performance from the President, it's unlikely that the former Massachusetts Governor will be able to reach the requisite 270 votes necessary to capture the White House.
Nate Silver of the New York Times has Obama winning 285 votes on Election Day and better than 60% chance of winning.
Had Romney flipped another two states and Obama not shown any gains anywhere, this may have been bad news for the President. However, with the new data showing Obama competitive in AZ, and Romney not flipping Ohio or Virginia, the post debate bump that Romney got may be fading.
The debate this coming Tuesday should define the race a little more.
What do you think? click on the comment tag below and share your thoughts.
Joe-followed you from Political Wire! You're site's great and I agree, Mittens will not win. Something we all need to remember is that our bi-polar tendencies as a party (my friend pointed this out today) can be combatted with optimism and GOTV!
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Thanks for checking out the blog and posting! I hope you come back!
Delete