As of today there are 16 days left until the 2012 General election. Polls are going crazy and as you all know, there are a ton of statistics out there that show Romney up in the popular vote, with Obama up in the Electoral College. I won't get into the disparity between the two, except to say that the Founders set up the system this way and it is what we have to work with.
So, lets get into it. I'm going to ignore the popular vote polls for the purpose of this post because there are conflicting surveys out there. Real Clear Politics has Romney with a very thin edge over Obama as of today, and I believe that it's accurate.
As to the electoral college: ElectoralVote, link on the right, currently has the President with a total of 286 votes among the polls they average. I like EV because they update their map every time a new poll is released. As you all know, I support the President, but that doesn't prevent me from looking at the facts. For example, most pundits, including Nate Silver, are saying that Obama will carry New Hampshire. However, EV has the state tied right now.
Anyway, President Obama's 286 votes are more than what he needs to get to get a second term. Problematic is that Mitt Romney is 35 votes shy. For him, the states in play are: Virginia and New Hampshire. Both are tied right now according to EV. With both of those states, he would still need 18 votes. And Ohio is where those 18 votes lie. But he has yet to show himself ahead in Ohio. Every poll since the conventions has had the President ahead in Ohio.
Hurting Romney more are two important news items related to early voting. First, the State of Ohio lost its efforts to eliminate early voting on the last weekend before election day. Second, early voting numbers, according to Political Wire, are showing a huge advantage for the President.
We won't know whether the elimination of the final weekend of early voting would have made a difference. But the early turnout numbers are staggering if they're accurate because in essence, they tell us that of the votes cast, nearly 66% were banked for the President.
This means that Romney would have to have nearly 2/3 of the votes cast on election day cast for him to offset the advantage of the President. Also, news is coming out that Tagg Romney, Mitt's oldest son, has ties to the voting machine company vending to Ohio and that the machines supposedly can be rigged. The story is conjecture at this point, but if it's true, it could be trouble for the Romney campaign, and at the very least mean intervention from the Federal Election Commission.
But in sum: Romney needs to have VA and NH come out for him, and he must flip Ohio. If he doesn't flip Ohio, there are no two states that have a total of 18 electoral votes that are polling close right now, meaning he would need NH and VA and a combination of at least 3 of the following four:
NV, CO, WI, and IA. All four are narrowly polling in The President's favor. Moreover, with the last debate focused on foreign policy tomorrow, the Romney campaign was probably hoping to make hay out of Benghazi.
But news broke yesterday that the Administration's statements after the attack were reflective of what the CIA knew at the time, so there was no cover up and there is no scandal.
The question then is: Presuming the Governor carries NH and VA, with just 16 days left until the election, can Mitt Romney flip Ohio or at least three of the four states mentioned? Nate Silver gives the President a better than 66% chance of winning the electoral college. And I think that barring a massive scandal between now and then, that's a smart bet...
So, lets get into it. I'm going to ignore the popular vote polls for the purpose of this post because there are conflicting surveys out there. Real Clear Politics has Romney with a very thin edge over Obama as of today, and I believe that it's accurate.
As to the electoral college: ElectoralVote, link on the right, currently has the President with a total of 286 votes among the polls they average. I like EV because they update their map every time a new poll is released. As you all know, I support the President, but that doesn't prevent me from looking at the facts. For example, most pundits, including Nate Silver, are saying that Obama will carry New Hampshire. However, EV has the state tied right now.
Anyway, President Obama's 286 votes are more than what he needs to get to get a second term. Problematic is that Mitt Romney is 35 votes shy. For him, the states in play are: Virginia and New Hampshire. Both are tied right now according to EV. With both of those states, he would still need 18 votes. And Ohio is where those 18 votes lie. But he has yet to show himself ahead in Ohio. Every poll since the conventions has had the President ahead in Ohio.
Hurting Romney more are two important news items related to early voting. First, the State of Ohio lost its efforts to eliminate early voting on the last weekend before election day. Second, early voting numbers, according to Political Wire, are showing a huge advantage for the President.
We won't know whether the elimination of the final weekend of early voting would have made a difference. But the early turnout numbers are staggering if they're accurate because in essence, they tell us that of the votes cast, nearly 66% were banked for the President.
This means that Romney would have to have nearly 2/3 of the votes cast on election day cast for him to offset the advantage of the President. Also, news is coming out that Tagg Romney, Mitt's oldest son, has ties to the voting machine company vending to Ohio and that the machines supposedly can be rigged. The story is conjecture at this point, but if it's true, it could be trouble for the Romney campaign, and at the very least mean intervention from the Federal Election Commission.
But in sum: Romney needs to have VA and NH come out for him, and he must flip Ohio. If he doesn't flip Ohio, there are no two states that have a total of 18 electoral votes that are polling close right now, meaning he would need NH and VA and a combination of at least 3 of the following four:
NV, CO, WI, and IA. All four are narrowly polling in The President's favor. Moreover, with the last debate focused on foreign policy tomorrow, the Romney campaign was probably hoping to make hay out of Benghazi.
But news broke yesterday that the Administration's statements after the attack were reflective of what the CIA knew at the time, so there was no cover up and there is no scandal.
The question then is: Presuming the Governor carries NH and VA, with just 16 days left until the election, can Mitt Romney flip Ohio or at least three of the four states mentioned? Nate Silver gives the President a better than 66% chance of winning the electoral college. And I think that barring a massive scandal between now and then, that's a smart bet...
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